The first primary of the 2012 Republican presidential campaign smacked down the hopes of some candidates like a hurricane, and in the wake of the storm stands long-time front-runner Mitt Romney.
Romney led the vote in New Hampshire Tuesday, January 10 with 39.3% of the vote, according to realpolitics.com. That leaves him with a substantial 16.4% lead over the man who came in second place, Ron Paul, and leaps and bounds ahead of conservative candidates Santorum and Gingrich, who came in with 9.4% of the vote each.
Analysts say the biggest losers of the night may be Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman who, according to a CNN poll released on January 11, currently have five and two percent of polled support in the next primary spot, South Carolina. According to his speech after the primary results designated him as the third place candidate in New Hampshire, Huntsman proudly declared that he had visited over 170 towns, and that he had a “ticket to South Carolina.”
However, analysts disagreed. Many said that since Huntsman put so much time into the New Hampshire campaign—far more than any other candidate—he had to win there, and with a third place showing he’d never get the jump he needed to boost his last place standing in South Carolina. A CNN analyst joked, “There must have been some open beer bottles behind Jon Huntsman, because he had to be drunk to give that speech.”
Huntsman dropped out of the race on Monday, January 16.
Rick Perry, once the conservative front-runner who has fallen flat of late, received less than one percent of the vote in New Hampshire. With other conservatives firmly cemented above him on the campaign, and polls demonstrating another abysmal showing for him in South Carolina, it appears Perry’s days on the campaign trail are numbered.
For the other candidates who did not win, the question has really become whether they can compete with the “Massachusetts moderate”, Mitt Romney. Paul, Santorum, and Gingrich have heavily criticized Romney’s former liberal stances on abortion, same-sex marriage, and public health care. However, he remains atop the game.
“I think Newt is the only one left who has a chance, and his chance is basically none at all,” CNN correspondent Ari Fleischer said.
CNN analyst Gloria Borger was also optimistic about Romney’s chances of winning the nomination.
“If Romney can finally focus the intensity and get people excited about his campaign he is on his way to winning the nomination. I think what they want to advance is the notion of electability.”
But just how electable is the former Massachusetts governor? Democratic strategist Cornell Belcher was less positive about Romney’s hopes for winning the general election.
“I don’t think Romney is such a great presidential election candidate. I think he’s fundamentally flawed and Gingrich and Perry are pointing that out.”
But regular CNN contributor John King said, “A poll shows Romney ahead of Obama in a national poll by 2 percentage points. The numbers are more a reflection on a vulnerable incumbent…and as we have this conversation about Romney, the Republicans would argue African American turnout won’t be quite as high because it won’t be a historical election. Maybe Latino turnout is down a little. Maybe some liberals don’t like that Gitmo is still open or don’t like Obama’s record on gay rights. Maybe democratic support is down—there’s still a huge question on the democratic side about intensity as well.”
Currently, there are big questions about whether Romney can satisfy ideologues on the left and the right—he seems to be the most attractive to moderates on both sides, who view his mixed voting record as a chance for a more united and efficient America.
Senior Nick Krebs believes in Romney’s platform.
“I have believed in Mitt since the beginning—his message that America is not just another place on the map with a flag, but something so much more, has inspired me, and I believe without a doubt in my mind that he can beat Obama and restore this country to greatness.”
Whether Romney is the right man for the job or not, he is currently leading the polls in South Carolina, according to a CNN poll, and if he is able to win in a state as conservative as South Carolina, the race may be over. After all, he has already proven popular in the Midwest and the Northeast with wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. Fox News host Bill O’Reilly said, “If Romney wins South Carolina, the race has been decided.”
Only the South Carolina results on January 21 can satisfy questions political analysts around the country are wondering, but until that time, it looks like the man from Massachusetts is in good shape.